By Prof.dr. R. M. Lapré, Dr. J. P. Mackenbach (auth.)
In order to chart the best way for long term regulations within the box of public future health, the Dutch govt must have the very best perception into capability destiny traits and the issues to which those may perhaps provide upward push. It used to be on the way to compiling a couple of long-range reports that the autonomous steerage Committee on health situations used to be arrange in 1983. In 1985 the steerage Committee appointed a board of specialists to behavior a long-range examine of "Accidents and traumatology" (traumatology being that element of drugs enthusiastic about the remedy of twist of fate victims). In shut session with this board, the Institute of Public overall healthiness and Social drugs of the Erasmus college Rotterdam conducted a state of affairs learn, the result of that are in brief summarized less than. 0.1 goals and technique The learn had ambitions: To discover attainable "autonomous" advancements (in the feel of being self sufficient of presidency intervention) within the box of injuries and the therapy of twist of fate sufferers. To specify the results of attainable coverage measures, relating to either the prevention of injuries and enhancements within the deal with twist of fate sufferers. The learn used to be exploratory instead of predictive. It didn't transcend the 12 months 2000, because it was once felt that the speed of switch during this box governed out taking a look a lot extra than ten to 15 years ahead.
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Extra info for Accidents in the Year 2000: Accident and Traumatology Scenarios 1985–2000 Commissioned by the Steering Committee on Future Health Scenarios
The growth rate of the Dutch economy has been one of the most influential factors. Total traffic volume - particularly through use of the passenger car - grew rapidly during a period of economic expansion (1950-1973). After the first oil crisis (1973) the rise in exposure levelled off in response to the less favourable economic circumstances. During this period the level of employment also declined, especially in manufacturing. Developments in exposure cannot, however, completely be ascribed to developments in the Dutch economy.
7 provides a summary of the trends in exposure, accident risk, incidence of injury, case fatality and mortality for the category of traffic accidents. km/ (victims/ (victims/ (deaths/lOO 1,000 inhab. km) 1,000 inhab. ) victims) transport Total" Passenger car Moped Bicycle Pedestrian Mortality (deaths/ 100,000inhab. 6 70 n,8. a. a " not available The figures in this row refer to all modes of transport and are therefore higher than the sum total of the four modes of transport mentioned separately.
Each panel had its own special questionnaire. e. demography, economy, technology, socio-cultural factors, and medical technology; and b) "government intervention". This assumption was of key importance in designing the questionnaires. The questionnaires were designed in such a way as to enable the experts to forecast trends up to the year 2000 in the following key variables in accident epidemiology. exposure accident risk case fatality probability of handicap use of health services. The experts were asked for their expectations about these variables under a number of different conditions: I.