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ELV production tacilities would expand accordingly. Thus, even before any losses m i g h t occur, the uncertainty in the iuture of the shuttle f l e e t could result in a collapse of the 1 9 9 0 s manitest and an increased cost p e r flight, which would deal manned space flight a serious b l o w . of Appendix G R E F E U h C E MATERIALS NASA "NSTS Flight Rate Projection (An Integrated Assessment)," A l f r e d Bishop, NASA-S-86-02368, 1986 "STS Flight Kate Briefing to the National Kesearch Council," Alfred Bishop, July 21-22, 1986 "Post 51-L Assessment of Space Shuttle Flight Rate Capability," J.

The Report o r the Presidential Conmission on the Space Shuttle Challenger Accident and the statements of individuals who met with the panel identified a number of relatively short-term problems that the panel believes NASA is likely t o solve by the early 1 9 9 0 ' s : o o The cannibalization oi LKUs froni one Orbiter for parts or r e p a i r of o t h e r Orbiters (on the o r d e r of 50 percent on past flights). Limitations on nondestructive testing. *The NASA spares program does not s u p p l y a full "ship set" o f spares, some of which have very long lead times.

Therefore, until the shuttle is seen to fulfill its original purpose, the demand i o r physical sciences flights i s likely t o drop. In the short run, the physical sciences utilization may well be determined by the price, if any, that such missions are assessed for launch costs. Priorities being what they are, the utilization rate of shuttle for physical sciences might be a 1-2 equivalent shuttle flights per year. ) The greatest change in utilization, however, is likely for geosynchronous and other high-altitude missions.

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